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Given the historic popular revolt in North Africa and the Middle East, China, where are also found one-party corruption and soaring food prices is at risk? Sinologists say no - or not yet.
The Sunday after police deployment the appeal on the internet to show in thirteen cities in China showed unambiguous: Beijing will kill any revolt in the bud.
The Communist Party has learned from his seven weeks of paralysis that had concluded with a bloodbath near Tiananmen Square in June 1989 when the army fired on the people.
The ferments of the burning of the Arab world are present in China regime stifling dissent, corruption, nepotism, widening gap between rich and poor and rising food prices. In addition, nearly half a billion Chinese is connected to the internet.
"I do not think China will be the next domino, "said Perry Link, however, the University of California.
" If you add up the fringes of the population who are bullied have been purchased, indoctrinated, which revolt but are not well organized ... there is not a sufficient to make a domino, "he told AFP.
For Daniel Bell, Tsinghua University, there are many in China," a desire for more openness, freedom of expression, justice, but not the same desire for revolution in the Middle East. "
Especially there are" opportunities for social mobility lacking in the Middle East. "
In China" was not at all in the same situation, "also notes Jean-Louis Rocca, Tsinghua well." We have a strong support system here, even if people are not happy. There is no intention of regime change. "
In three decades of tremendous growth, the communist government has extracted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty and allowed the emergence of a middle class of several hundred of millions more.
And although there are still many difficulties, "generally we do not China a sense of deep crisis similar to what was happening at Mubarak and Tunisia," "said the sociologist, there is" neither despair nor impression that has no future. "
Especially not in youth, despite a high unemployment of graduates. The Chinese want
essentially "that the regime does what it promised," says Dr. Rocca: reducing income disparities, establishing the rule of law or health coverage.
"When people enter the middle class, they tend to want stability," also notes Jean-Pierre Cabestan of the Hong Kong Baptist University.
Thus, for the Chinese, "this is not the time to capsize the boat," he said, "conditions are not ripe for a direct confrontation. It's probably too early for now.
We can not exclude, he said, "species of abscesses in the provincial capitals," for example, against corrupt executives.
Another difference with the Egyptians, Tunisia and Libya, the power in Communist China is neither personal nor dynastic.
"Here no one could say 'Hu Jintao released!" said Jean-Louis Rocca, the head of about State: "Hu Jintao has no personal power", since it is the head of the Political Bureau.
In China, "the number one change every ten years," notes Mr Capstan, and "this is not a family that is enriched."
However, some people are dreaming. As the lawyer Teng Biao, questioned by AFP Egypt.
"I think there is a possibility that to happen" in China, "he said last week. Just before becoming unreachable.
Anyway, Tiananmen is not a new Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the revolution in Cairo: access is restricted since 2008 by barriers, with security checks. ©
ANP / AFP
* Faced with popular uprisings historic North Africa and the Middle East, China, where rampant also one-party corruption and soaring food prices is at risk? Sinologists say no - or not yet.
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