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http://www.rue89.com/entretien/2011/02/20/olivier-roy-comme-solution-politique-lislamisme-est-fini-191153

Olivier Roy: "As a solution political Islamism is finished "
By Augustin Scalbert high school graduate in Persian Language O, later a doctorate in political science, the researcher 61 years now teaches at the European University Institute in Florence (Italy), where he directs the Mediterranean Programme, and the CNRS and EHESS.

Less known in France and abroad, Olivier Roy has worked successively on Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, political Islam, Muslims in the West and, more recently, on a comparative approach new forms of religiosity ("The holy ignorance," in 2008). Interview

Rue89: The Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions are they comparable ?
Olivier Roy: Yes, by their players and their demands.

We find these actors throughout the Arab world and beyond. They are educated young people, connected (internet, Twitter, Facebook, mobile phones, etc..), Although one should not exaggerate the rate of Internet penetration in these societies. These kids are sociologically in terms of modern family structures, training, design things.

They are individualistic, they believe in democracy, but it's more a protest than revolution. They are then joined by the other generations.

The second point this is what they are fighting against: Plans worn, aged, plutocrats, which are customized, "familialization" for thirty years, and which do not evolve. This is the generation

ras-le-bol, which is the end of great ideologies, all the major ideologies: Islam, nationalism, Arab socialism.

What makes it explodes in countries politically and socially different?
Politically, they are not that different, since it is still authoritarian regimes. You monarchical variant that is more legitimate, more established, more rooted in history. But other than that, no, dictatorships are not diversified. And where there was an estate (Morocco, Syria, Jordan) is the son who took his father's place, and reformed the speech but not practical. What is different is the sociology and anthropology policies of each country. For example, it is clear that Yemen and Jordan, the question of the tribes is important, then it does not arise in North Africa or Egypt. Or that Syria was the Alawite factor: there was no instance, moreover, an ethno-religious group that has seized power.

Basically, the differences are in how authorities have hinged on the company to sustain itself.

"This generation has never invested Islamism"

What is the weight of the split between Shia and Sunni?
There is a further problem when the demand for democracy is based on ethnic lines (Iraq), faith (Bahrain) or tribal (Yemen), and there the risk of repression and violence is much stronger.

example is the case in Bahrain, where a Sunni minority dominated by a Shiite majority. For Sunnis, supported by Saudi Arabia, democracy is unacceptable, because they lose power.

While the Shiites, who are far from pro-Iranian, just insist on being citizens of Bahrain before being Shiites (in the protests, they wave the national flag).

But a speech inaudible in the Gulf's Sunni elite.

Why does it explodes almost everywhere, and now?
It is a mystery. It's been twenty years since the conclusion of the blocking is done, and now it explodes.

That tells me that this is a generational phenomenon: it is the arrival of a generation born in the crisis, which has never invested Islamism as a solution to all its problems, because Islam was already part of the political landscape when she became politically aware. This generation is not ideological.

There are other things he should dig. For example, the peak of population growth: after them, the birth rate has dropped. This is the baby boom, which allows a comparison with May 68.

Al Jazeera strengthen Arab solidarity "

What is the role of the Internet? Are the leaders of these countries carry out the political change that cause social networks, viral virtual?
They see the effects, and perceived negatively, course. They see the Internet as a new medium, a sort of super Al Jazeera. They do not see it all as a new social bond.

So a new medium appears, he says things you do not like, it is closed. They did not understand they are dealing with a new generation. Paternalism Mubarak's intervention in the Egyptian television shows: "I too have been young, I love my country", etc..

But it does not work, because they have not internalized the culture of these new means of communication.

Can we talk about a new pan-Arabism, not marked by nationalism as before, but a rejection of autocratic regimes?
The crisis shows that there is an Arab world: the effect of mimicry is operating in the Arab world, and only there for the moment. There is an Arab solidarity, reinforced by Al Jazeera, for example, obviously.

But the term pan-Arabism is not a political project: there is no pan-Arab slogan, just as there is no ideological slogan in the demonstrations.

The Arab world is a space for debate, there is one Arab scene, but there is no pan-Arabism as a political project.

And it is perhaps precisely because there is more of a political project that speech is Free. This is the paradox of what is happening now.

"The Islamists have gentrified"

Other dictators do they take the seed of Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions?
Yes. The first lesson they learned is the caution: do not go head-on against these movements, but try to defuse them before they reach a mass effect.

is what the Algerian government is trying to do. But his actions will not prevent the movement of Algerian grow. Without them, it will be because of other obstacles such as the anesthetic effect of the civil war. But we can not know, maybe it will fuel even more fed up to the bowl.

What is the actual weight of Islamists in these revolutions? This is apparently above all secular movements?
Yes: in all these revolutions, the Islamists are absent. That does not mean they will not come back.

Islamism is finished as a political solution and as ideology. But the Islamists are there, and so is the great unknown.

I see two possible paths, which are not incompatible:

towards Turkey: moving to the equivalent of a Christian Democrat, very conservative, but who plays the game of parliamentary ;
or a kind of Opus Dei, a movement that says "we are in politics, who cares, what is important to us are the religious norms." In other words, a salafisation Islamists.
To understand this, we must understand one important thing: the Islamists have gentrified. They became parliamentarism, but they are also conservative, they have no social project, and are therefore absent from the economic and social struggles.

is very clear in Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood have become liberal in economics. They are for privatization and against the strike.

And that is true everywhere: the Islamists are in a flight to morals, manners, virtue. They are no longer able to retrieve any social discontent.

"There is a risk of anarchy"

Model Turkey's AKP would be applicable to other countries, like Egypt or Tunisia?
Yes, of course, it is, but it will take some time since this model is part of parliamentary practice. If the elections take the necessary time, the Islamists will not have the majority in Egypt or Tunisia. Apart from a peak in 1991 as Algeria, Islamists are within 20% everywhere.

But there is a risk of anarchy, because the scene policy was deliberately destroyed by authoritarian regimes. In Tunisia, a fringe of people will be disappointed, because nothing will happen on socio-economic unsolvable in the short term, such as youth and unemployed graduate. Immigrants who landed on the island of Lampedusa, it shows that people do not.

For Egypt, I would go for a change in the Turkish army which stands as guarantor of the institutions and the treaty with Israel.

But why voters do not they give the Islamists a majority? Why would they vote
for people who were not there during the revolution?

This is not Iran in 1979, where Islamists have made the revolution, and Algeria in 1991 when the Islamic Front of salvation was the head of the protest. The Islamists were at the forefront. Today, they are not at all in protest.

"Being disappointed Islamism does not push for secularism"

"The paradox of Islam is that it has largely depoliticized Islam," you write. These revolutions are therefore a "failure of political Islam," to borrow the title of your book of 1992?
Yes of course, failure is there. But it was there before. The slogan of the major political Islam, "Islam has all the answers, it is a global system of governance ', nobody believes.

But the mistake is to believe that the disappointment of the people against the Islamic forces them to be secular. We remain prisoners of the scheme "is political secularism or Islamism." This pattern is broken.

claim, as French diplomats, these dictators were protecting us from Islamism, is a mistake a long time?
Yes, it was not the case. But our diplomacy going beyond that, there was a kind of osmosis with the plans. The embassies were forbidden to speak with the opposition, it was impossible to bring an opponent to Paris, even in a bar.

The Americans have always kept communication channels open, while France has voluntarily cut.

In Egypt, we did not talk to the Muslim Brotherhood, not the opposition in Tunisia. It still does not speak to the Moroccan opposition. On order.

Suddenly, France has completely cut off from understanding the changes in Muslim societies.

Paradoxically, this understanding we have through research institutes who do a remarkable job in different countries. But that policy does not want to know.

"It is a defeat for Al Qaeda"

How do you explain the relative silence on Al-Qaeda these revolutions, including the ideologue of the movement, the former Muslim Brother Ayman al-Zawahiri?
It has nothing to say because it is a defeat for Al Qaeda. As Mubarak Al Qaeda lived polarization: on the one hand, pro-Western regimes, and the other, Islam. Now Al Qaeda is as clueless as Mubarak. His idea that

"As long as you have not beaten the Great Satan by the international jihad, you can achieve anything in your country, this idea does not work anymore. Al Qaeda has no ideological or sociological influence in these zones.

Their answer should be a major attack somewhere, if they can afford, since it is through this that they exist.

We are therefore witnessing a failure of the theory of "clash of civilizations" of Samuel Huntington?
Yes, complete failure, even if Huntington would have welcomed these changes as he was a theorist of the democratic transition before falling into the clash of civilizations.

Huntington, it's fantasy, but it works because it is fantasy in the minds of people in the West, and is self-fulfilling. September 11th is a great success of these ideas. Bin Laden is Huntingtonian. That is where this happens is very bad news for Al Qaeda.

In the West, "it breaks the software populist

The report to the West has long dominated Arab political behavior. However, in these revolutions, not least the American flag burned. Why?
is the Obama effect. These revolutions could not have taken place under Bush, because he wanted to export democracy.

This is never before in France: we never took Bush seriously when he said "j'envahis Iraq to install democracy." A revolution led by a military invasion, of course, it can not take. Democracy was abroad.

Now that U.S. troops in Iraq are on the move and Obama returned to a realpolitik, one can claim democracy without match the Americans.

Do you think these revolutions can have an impact among Muslims in the West?
Yes, but indirectly: it breaks the "Muslim fatalism" trotted out by the Islamophobic right or left, who say that Islam is incompatible with democracy. According to them, to integrate Muslim immigrants, it would therefore theological reform.

What happens in the streets of Tunis and Cairo breaks this software. It breaks all software populist. You can not hear right now people like Riposte secular, or so we announce a victory for the Islamists.

Photo: A man poses for a photo during a demonstration in Cairo, February 7, 2011 (Goran Tomasevic / Reuters) Olivier Roy (Hermance Triay / Editions du Seuil).

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