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0700 GMT: The House Arrest. The International Campaign for Human Rights Reports from Iran in "an Informed sources" that the dissident politique Two are No Longer Under House Arrest and Have Been Moved to a "safe house" controlled by The Revolutionary Guard, in year area close to Tehran. Presumably, if the story is true, Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard and Karroubi's wife Fatemeh have also been moved.

A Karroubi neighbour told ICHRI that security forces who were present on Karroubi’s street are gone: “I am certain that [the Karroubis] are no longer inside their home. All the windows are broken and nobody is home."

Mousavi and Rahnavard's daughters have said that lights have not been turned on in the house for several evenings and an eyewitness says there is no sign of activity near the residence in the Pastor neighbourhood of Tehran.

0640 GMT: The Next March? A reminder to follow up our morning thoughts on the politics and protest ahead --- last night we posted the English translation of the opposition's call to march on Tuesday.

0620 GMT: A curious phase in Iranian politics continues.

The regime has appeared this week to be at a bit of a loss what to do. On the international front, the nuclear issue, which has been used to rally the public behind the Government, has been eclipsed by the dramas of the Arab uprising, even as the State outlet IRNA tries to headline "Iran's peaceful nuclear activities". Tehran's strategy of claiming those movements continues --- almost all the "domestic" news on Press TV's website yesterday was on the topic, as the Tehran Prayer Leader declared that those from Egypt to Bahrain had inherited the legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini --- but with the effort making little headway in politics outside Iran, it is stuttering.

"Positive" initiatives on the domestic front have also been muted. The celebrations of 22 Bahman (11 February), which seemed a bit flat, have not been followed by another drive for legitimacy. With President Ahmadinejad's economic programme of subsidy cuts awaiting results and the 2011 budget caught up in tensions with Parliament, there is little beyond a feel-good story claiming Chinese investment in an oilfield.

Instead, it appears the regime may be caught up with its concern over an opposition which dared show itself in public this month. The Minister of Intelligence's appearance on Thursday night on national TV may have been bumbling and even humourous, but it marked the ascendancy of "sedition" on the Government's agenda. And this morning continues to be distinguished by chatter about what may have happened beyond house arrest to opposition figures Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard.

The opposition, meanwhile, faces its own challenge of uncertainty. Trying to follow up its success of getting tens of thousands on the streets in the last two weeks, activists are looking for a march next Tuesday. However, with Mousavi and Karroubi shut away and their advisors operating outside Iran, the question of whether another public move can be organised hovers in each pronouncement.
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